April 19, 2024
As promised, Israel responded to Iran’s prior missile attack, but the retaliation thus far has been tempered — just a few drone attacks against an Iranian military base near Isfahan that were shot down. Damages were light, and neither Israeli nor Iranian media are fanning the incident, which provoked initial financial confusion that helped depress […] Read Article
April 13, 2024
Central Banks: The Federal Reserve Beige Book of recent regional economic conditions will be published, and a slew of Fed officials have public speaking opportunities including Goolsbee, Williams, Bostic, Mester, Daly and Logan. Lane, Schnaebel and Guindos of the European Central Bank and Bailey, Haskel, Breeden, and Ramsden of the Bank of England will be […] Read Article
April 3, 2024
The Central Bank of Chile has reduced its policy interest rate by a further 75 basis points, matching analyst expectations. There has previously been cuts of 100 basis points in January and 300 bps in the second half of 2023 from a peak of 11.25% maintained from November 2022 until July 2023. By contrast during […] Read Article
March 31, 2024
The dollar, ten-year sovereign debt yields, and equities and commodity prices rose in the first quarter. The Swiss National Bank became the first major developed economy central bank to lower interest rates in this cycle, and the Bank of Japan became the last to abandon a negative short-term interest rate. The Fed pushed out the […] Read Article
April 17, 2024
The dollar and U.S. equities are little changed this Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei-225 index closed down 1.3%, but share prices rose 2.1% in China and 1.6% in Taiwan. European stocks are up, too. Bitcoin’s price plunged 4.4% overnight, extending its drop over the past five weeks to 17%. WTI oil is down 1.2%, but gold is […] More
April 16, 2024
The mounting relief late in 2023 and early this year that monetary easing happens sooner rather than later has largely dissipated in the face of uncooperative data. To be sure, economic data rarely move in a strictly linear fashion, and monetary policies are guided not by single points of data but rather on the basis […] More
April 15, 2024
The dominant theme of the first half of April has been the retreat in hopes that a cycle of Fed interest rate cuts might commence as early as June. This shift is being driven by data pointing to stalled U.S. disinflation and stronger-than-assumed economic growth. Monday’s menu of U.S. data includes Stronger-than-expected retail sales that […] More
April 12, 2024
Fear that Iran is going to attack Israel is augmenting economic factors strengthening the dollar, which climbed 0.7% on a weighted basis to its strongest point since November. Today’s release of U.S. import price data also buoyed the U.S. currency. Import price gains in March of 0.4% both on month and year-on-year exceeded expectations. Import […] More
April 11, 2024
Central bankers have consistently sent a message that disinflation will be a bumpy process and that monetary policy normalization will hinge on growing confidence that inflation targets will be fully resecured. In other words, time and evolving information will dictate what is done. It is not apparent if inflation will meet these parameters without a […] More
April 10, 2024
U.S. consumer price inflation in March exceeded expectations and continued a 2024 pattern of disappointment for investors hoping to see the Federal Reserve lower interest rates. In response, The weighted DXY dollar index is 0.8% above Tuesday’s closing level. The greenback rose 1.4% and 1.0% against the Australian and New Zealand dollar, 0.9% versus the […] More
April 9, 2024
Tuesday’s been another wait-and-see day, with little fresh data to provide direction and being just ahead of tomorrow’s release of U.S. consumer price figures and minutes from the last FOMC U.S. monetary policy meeting. The dollar’s a touch softer, declining overnight by 0.5% against the Australian currency, 0.4% versus the Swiss franc, 0.3% relative to […] More
April 8, 2024
Ten-year sovereign debt yields climbed so far today by four basis points in Germany, two bps in the U.S. and U.K., and a basis point in Japan. The dollar is marginally lower, slipping 0.2% versus the euro, 0.4% against the kiwi, 0.3% relative to the Aussie dollar, and 0.1% vis-a-vis sterling. Not all dollar relationships […] More
April 5, 2024
Central Banks: Monetary policies to be reviewed at the European Central Bank and in Canada, New Zealand, South Korea, Thailand, Serbia, Israel, Peru, and the Philippines. Minutes will be published from last month’s FOMC meeting, and Kashkari, Goolsbee, Williams and Bostic are some of the Fed officials who will be speaking publicly during the period. […] More
April 5, 2024
Whereas share prices have fallen compared to Thursday closing levels by 2.0% in Japan, 1.7% in Spain, 1.5% in Italy, 1.4% in Germany and Great Britain, 1.0% in South Korea, and 0.6% in Australia and Taiwan, the DOW and U.S. S&P 500 show gains of 0.6%, and the tech-intensive Nasdaq index is up 1.1% thus […] More
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